2007, Volume 9, Issue 6
Strategic Study of CAE >> 2007, Volume 9, Issue 6
Research of the Exponential Smoothing Technology forForecasting Slope Displacement
College of Civil Engineering, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, Hunan 411201, China
Next Previous
Abstract
Exponential smoothing is an efficient method for forecasting and decision-making. The forecasting model of exponential smoothing to forecast the displacement at Observation Point 5 of certain city hazardous landslide is applied in this paper. According to the characteristics of observation forecast formula with linear trend of the twice exponential smoothing, appropriate formulae calculating at, bt and suitable exponential smoothing value are selected and used to make a forecast. The forecast results show that the errors between the forecast values and the observation values are very little. And it shows that this model may be well applied to the forecast of the displacement in the deformation of slopes.
Figures
图 1
References
[ 1 ] 肖庭延 .实用预测技术及应用[M] .武汉 :华中理工 大学出版社 ,1993
[ 2 ] 吕金虎 ,陆君安 ,陈士华 .混沌时间序列分析及其应用[M] .武汉 :武汉大学出版社 ,2002
[ 3 ] 项静恬 ,史久恩 .非线性系统中数据处理的统计方法 [M] .北京 :科学出版社 ,2000
[ 4 ] 周雄鹏 .统计预测和决策[M] .上海 :立性会计图书 用品社 ,1991
[ 5 ] 徐龙封 .对指数平滑法的思考与推广[J]预测 .1995 , 5 :66 ~ 68 ,62
[ 6 ] 沈良峰 ,张月龙 .基于指数平滑技术的边坡位移预测 方法[J] .建筑科学 ,2004 ,20(4) :43 ~ 45 link1
京公网安备 11010502051620号
