2009, Volume 11, Issue 6
Strategic Study of CAE >> 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6
The scientific faith that earthquake is predictable should be insisted—the successful prediction of three strong aftershocks of Wenchuan Earthquake
Chinese Earthquake Prediction Consultation Committee, Beijing 100029, China
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Abstract
Is earthquake predictable? This question has been discussed a lot by earthquake researchers and common people after the Wenchuan Earthquake.The specialists in Chinese Earthquake Prediction Consultation Committee started the aftershock prediction research after the earthquake to support emergency rescue and disaster relief with practical action.From May 15 to August 15, the committee formally reported prediction results for 3 times and the three strong aftershocks, i.e.M 6.0 earthquake on May 18 in Jiangyou, M 6.4 earthquake on May 25 in Qingchuan and M 6.1 earthquake on August 1 in Beichuan, have been correctly predicted.Through predicting aftershock isn't so difficult as predicting main shock, those people who think earthquake can be predicted after decades of generations and despise the academic viewpoint that earthquake is predictable should think over the fact that the prediction of all three aftershocks was correct without any miss report, and treat the academic viewpoint equally.
Keywords
Wenchuan Earthquake ; aftershock of Wenchuan Earthquake ; earthquake short -impending prediction
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