It is predicted that the population of China will be growing to 1.45 billion， the urbanization rate will be 70 % by 2030， the total urban population will be exploded to 1 billion comparing with 0.7 billion urban population of 2013. As the continuously growing of population of China and urban population， China will face severe food crisis， especially the protein shortage problem in future. This paper presents a new theoretical model that by combining non-grid-connected wind power and coal to gas with bioengineering to produce single cell protein to contribute to resolving the food crisis. By combining non-grid-connected wind power and coal to gas with bioengineering to produce single cell protein can not only use the coal resource more efficiently， environmental friendly， but also produce nutrient rich protein for forage and human food.

Ensuring national food security is crucial for strengthening the agriculture sector of China, and it holds both theoretical and practical significance in the context of the "dual circulation" (i. e., domestic and international economic circulations) strategy. This study explores the resilience of China's food security and its capacity for risk management under the "dual circulation" framework, providing an analysis of the current status, characteristics, influencing factors, and feasible pathways for enhancing food security resilience and risk management capabilities. The study identifies key factors influencing food security resilience and risk management, including the agricultural production base, the level of agricultural technology, food production methods, support policies for food production, and the international trade environment. Feasible pathways for enhancing food security resilience and risk management capabilities include improving the stability of food supply, enhancing the adaptability of food production, promoting the sustainability of food production, maintaining the continuity of policy systems, and strengthening the coordination between domestic and international markets. To achieve these goals, it is recommended to solidify the foundation of grain production capacity, improve technological support for grain production, strengthen intelligent monitoring and management, accelerate the establishment of guarantee systems, and optimize grain import and export trade. These measures will enhance China's food security resilience and risk management capabilities in the context of "dual circulation".

The most prominent contradiction in ensuring food security of China lies in feed grain and the effective supply of protein feed is the key to satisfy people's demand for consumption of livestock and poultry products. This study focused on the strategic requirements of ensuring food security and achieving sustainable protein supply, and analyzed the utilization status of protein feed resources and summarized the major problems in protein feed supply. Based on the protein feed resources in China and the potential of protein supply in the international market, this article analyzed the potential for substituting soybean meal in our country. It is expected that by 2035 the soybean imports will have reduced 58.8 million tons compared with 2020 by expanding the planting, increasing the income of oil crops, developing new feed resources, utilizing conventional protein feed resources, efficiently, optimizing the planting structure of forage crops, as well as improving the efficiency of livestock and poultry protein conversion. It is suggested that future efforts should be focused on tapping potentials and expanding resources, strengthening scientific and technological support, also carrying out appropriate import by imptementing major projects such as increasing crop and forage production, improving quality and efficiency of unconventional protein feed resources, and developing new protein feed resources. In addition, financial support should be increased and the international market effectively exploited, in order to promote soybean meal substitution and ensure national food security.

Food concerns national livelihood and food security is vital for national security. In the context of "dual circulation" (i.e., domestic and international economic circulation) in China, clarifying the basic situation and challenges of food security and exploring effective strategies for food development are crucial for ensuring stable national development. Using national macro statistics, we first analyzed the basic situation of food security in China and the challenges it faces in the context of "dual circulation". Subsequently, we made a macro study on national food security and proposed the goals, strategic paths, major projects, and feasible countermeasures for ensuring national food security. Our study indicates that there exists a large gap between food supply and demand, a high degree of external dependence, and a large amount of imports of feed protein in China, as well as challenges including the difficulty in substituting feed protein domestically, rigidness of environmental restrictions on soil and water resources, low incentives for farmers to grow grains, and insufficient risk-resistant capabilities of the food security system. Moreover, we proposed a series of major projects, such as demonstration for upgrading grain production capacity, new protein resource substitution, green and lowcarbon planting and breeding circulation, development and utilization of international grain resources, and research and development demonstration of future foods. Several development strategies were further suggested, including the establishment of a food security guarantee system, moderate expansion of cultivated land areas, sustained increase in oil-bearing plant production, steady resumption of a multiple cropping system in South China, and sustained advancement of a rotational cropping system in North China.

Accurate identification and effective control of food security risks are crucial for national security. This study constructs a food security risk system that comprises nine major types of risk sources from the perspective of the entire industrial chain. Our research identifies seven main risks that China's food security faces at the new stage: relatively lagging breeding technologies, prominent contradiction between resource supply and demand, frequent disasters, significant decline in farmers' willingness to grow grains, increased uncontrollability of market trade, inadequacy in policy compliance and stability, and frequent impacts of unexpected events. Based on this, a strategic concept is proposed, that is, a food security risk management and control system that combines early identification, normal monitoring, and emergency warning and is capable of entire industrial chain risk identification, whole-process management, and multi-level linkage. Furthermore, the following strategies for controlling food security risks are proposed: (1) promoting food security legislation, (2) launching a key scientific and technological project for constructing a national food security risk control system, (3) improving infrastructure and defense systems, and (4) optimizing market-oriented means and tools for risk management. The research results are expected to provide decision-making references for promoting the modernization of China's food security governance system and capacities.

Northwest China is strategically crucial for China’s economic development, social stability, and national defense security. However, the shortage of water resources and its fragile ecological environment have been hindering local economic development and life quality improvement for local residents. In this study, we analyze the characteristics of agricultural production and trade in Northwest China from 2000 to 2018 from the perspective of water footprint and virtual water, and clarifies the impact of virtual water flow on local water resources. Research shows that the water footprint regarding crop production in Northwest China showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2018. The outflow scale of virtual water gradually increases alongside with the transfer-out of fruits and cotton. The outflow of virtual water regarding fruits and cotton in Northwest China was 3.212 × 10¹¹ m³ in 2018, accounting for 69.8 % of the total water footprint regarding crop production. The Yellow River Basin is the primary inflow area of virtual water from Northwest China, and the region northwest to the "Qice line" is the primary outflow area of virtual water. Water shortage is severe in Northwest China and fruit and cotton are planted for trade to drive economic growth. Therefore, optimizing the crop planting and virtual water trade structures and encouraging inter-basin water transfer are key measures to regulate physical–virtual water cycle, alleviate the contradiction between water supply and demand, and ensure regional water security.

《1 Introduction》

1 Introduction

Water resources contribute significantly to economic and social development in Northwest China.  As the main reserve of light, heat, and land resources in China [1], Northwest China provides significant benefit to the economic construction, social stability, and national defense security of China [2]. Agricultural development is indispensable to the promotion of Northwest China. However, Northwest China is the most water-deficient region in China; it is associated with an arid climate, low rainfall, and high evaporation. The total water resource in Northwest China constitutes only 5.7% of the country’s level, and the amount of water resources per unit area is only 15% of the national average water level. In particular, agricultural water constitutes 80% of the total water consumption in Northwest China. The contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources is prominent, the allocation of water and soil resources is unbalanced, and the level of economic development is restricted significantly [3]. Therefore, fully alleviating the severe pressure faced by water resources, reliably carrying the sustainable development of the agricultural economy, and stably supporting regional food supply security are key to realizing healthy and sustainable development in Northwest China.

The concept of virtual water was proposed at the end of the 20th century [4], which provided a new research perspective for solving water shortage [5]. It allowed researchers to re-examine issues such as food security, water security, and agricultural product trade from the perspective of virtual water. After years of development, the academic community combined the concepts of virtual water and water footprint. Researchers believe that the demand for water resources during the production and consumption of agricultural products can be termed, “water footprint of agricultural product production (consumption),” and that the term virtual water is to be used only when agricultural products are traded [6]. Currently, water footprint and virtual water are the focus of research and application in relevant fields. In particular, changes in temporal and spatial differences, the calculation of water footprint of specific agricultural products, and the coupling relationship between water footprint/virtual water and the economic level are emphasized [7,8]. However, studies regarding trade and the method to solve the imbalance of water and soil resource allocation under the current virtual water flow are scarce.

Currently, almost all inland rivers in Northwest China are over-exploited. The center of gravity of areas that produce main crops, such as grain, cotton, and fruits, continues to shift northward, thereby causing the locals consume 30%–40% of water resources to maintain the trade of agricultural products. The local water resources cannot adequately support the sustainable development goals of the economy and society, and the water security in Northwest China is in jeopardy in the medium and long terms. Hence, in this study, we analyze the composition and spatio–temporal characteristics of the water footprint of bulk crop production, evaluate the effect of virtual water flow on regional water resources, and propose new development ideas to solve the safety of water resources in Northwest China such that improvement suggestions can be provided for maintaining the virtual water economy development model at the expense of the ecological environment.

《2 Demand analysis of water resource regulation in Northwest China》

2 Demand analysis of water resource regulation in Northwest China

《2.1 Shortage of water resources》

2.1 Shortage of water resources

Northwest China is an important reserve base for grain production in China. It produces 12% of the country’s grain [9] using 10% of the country’s water resources and 15% of the grain planting area, and participates in 65% of the tasks pertaining to new grain production. However, the multiyear average surface water resource in Northwest China is 1.426 × 10¹¹ m³, the groundwater resource is 6.996 × 10¹⁰ m³, and the multiyear average total water resource is only 1.593 × 10¹¹ m³ (by deducting the repeated amount, it constitutes only 5.7% of the national total). Therefore, it is the most water-scarce region in China [1].

In recent decades, climate warming and humidification in China have intensified. For example, the average temperature increase rate in Northwest China is 0.4 °C/10a, and the precipitation increase rate is 10.1 mm/10a [10]. However, from the perspective of regional water resources, the improvement afforded by this warm and humid trend is insignificant: (1) The precipitation depth in Northwest China is generally 150–250 mm/a, and the growth trend of 1 mm/a would not significantly change the rainfall characteristics; (2) owing to the severe drought in Northwest China, the evaporation of river and water surface is high, and the potential evapotranspiration is more than five times that of precipitation. The increase in water resources caused by warming and humidification did not significantly change the drought characteristics of this area; (3) the rainfall in the east of Northwest China did not increase.

《2.2 Significant amount of development and utilization but low efficiency》

2.2 Significant amount of development and utilization but low efficiency

The development and utilization rate of water resources in Northwest China is high, the water resources are severely overloaded, and water safety cannot be guaranteed. In recent years, the development and utilization rate of water resources in China has been 22.6%, whereas that in Northwest China reached 59.8%, including 62.6% in the Yellow River Basin and 56.3% in the inland river basin. In particular, the development and utilization rates of water resources in the Shiyang River Basin, Heihe River Basin, Tarim River Basin, and Junggar Basin reached maximum values of 154%, 112%, 91%, and 92%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the water use efficiency in Northwest China is relatively low. Under the comprehensive effect of objective (arid and semi-arid areas) and subjective factors, the farmland irrigation quota in Northwest China in 2018 is 476.59 m³/mu (1 mu ≈ 666.67 m²), which is 1.31 of the national average. The output of GDP per unit water is 44.6 CNY/m³, which is only 30 % of the national average.

《2.3 Unreasonable water structure》

2.3 Unreasonable water structure

From the perspective of water supply structure, the total water supply in Northwest China reached 9.29 × 1010 m3 in 2018, of which surface water constituted 7.16 × 1010 m3 (i.e., 77.1%), groundwater constituted 2.016 × 1010 m3 (i.e., 21.7%), and sewage reuse and rainwater utilization constituted 1.133 × 109 m3 (i.e., 1.2 %). From the perspective of water use structure, the consumption of agricultural water is 7.71 × 1010 m3 (i.e., 83%), whereas those of industrial water and domestic water are 5.117 × 109 m3 (i.e., 5.5%) and 3.581 × 109 m3 (i.e., 3.8%), respectively. These data show that the consumption of agricultural water in Northwest China is excessive and that the water use structure is unreasonable. The development trend of water use shows that the importance of ecological construction in Northwest China has increased in the past two decades. However, owing to limitations by the development level and development model, agriculture remains the most important industry in China.

Whether water resources can continue to support the development of Northwest China based on agriculture remains unclear owing to restrictions arising from the fragility of water resources and ecological environment. Typically, most agricultural products in Northwest China are transferred to the central and eastern regions in the form of virtual water. For example, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region produces more than 80% of the country’s cotton and supplies a significant amount of high-quality fruits for the country. The approach to maintain this “virtual water economy” at the expense of the ecological environment remains to be identified for the sustainable development of Northwest China.

《3 Research methods and data sources》

3 Research methods and data sources

《3.1 Study area》

3.1 Study area

Northwest China is demarcated by the three water lines (TWL), i.e., the Hu Huanyong Line, Yangguan Line, and Qice Line, which categorize the region based on characteristics such as landform, human geography, hydrometeorology, and water resource distribution [1]. Among those lines, the Hu Huanyong Line demarcates a region with 400 mm of precipitation. The Yangguan Line separates the extreme arid area (annual precipitation of less than 100 mm) from the arid area. The Qice Line demarcates Xinjiang into southeastern and northwestern regions with approximately the same area. In particular, the northwestern region constitutes 93% of the water resources, 87% of the population, and 89% of the GDP.

Combined with water resource zoning and municipal administrative counties, the TWL of Northwest China are classified into the northwest of the Qice Line (QCXXB), southwest of the Qice Line (QCXXN), northeast of the Qice Line (QCXDB), southeast of the Qice Line (QCXDN), Hexi inland river basin (HX), Qaidam Basin (CDM), semi-arid grassland area (BGH), and Yellow River Basin area (HH).

《3.2 Methods》

3.2 Methods

Crop production water footprint (𝑊, m3/kg) refers to the amount of water resources consumed by crops per unit mass during production and includes the green water footprint (soil water, 𝑊g𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛) and blue water footprint (irrigation water, 𝑊_{b𝑙𝑢𝑒}) [11,12]. The Water Footprint Evaluation Manual [13] specifies that the water footprint is to be calculated as follows:

\(W=W_{\text {green }}+W_{\text {blue }}=10 E_{c} / Y \)     (1)

\(E_{\text {green }}=\min \left(E_{c}, P_{\text {eff }}\right)\)     (2)

\(E_{\text {blue }}=\max \left(0, E_{c}-P_{\text {eff }}\right) \)    (3)

\(E_{c}=E_{0} \times K_{c}\)    (4)

where y is the yield pre crop (kg/hm²); the constant factor 10 is the conversion coefficient of converting the depth of water (mm) into the water volume per unit land area (m³/hm²); E_green and Eblue are the effective precipitation and irrigation water of crop evapotranspiration (mm); Kc is the crop coefficient; Peff is the effective precipitation used during the crop growth period (mm); E₀ is the potential crop evapotranspiration (calculated using the Penman–Monteith formula, mm/d).

Crop consumption water footprint (𝑊_con) refers to the amount of water resources contained in consumer goods that is consumed by residents in the region. 𝑊_con is calculated as follows:

\(W_{\text {con }}=\sum_{i=1}^{n} W_{i} \times P_{i}\)         (5)

\(P_{i}=P_{\text {city }} \times N_{\text {city }}+P_{\text {country }} \times N_{\text {country }}\)   (6)

where 𝑊con is the total water footprint of agricultural product consumption in the study area (m³); i represents the type of agricultural product consumed; P_i is the total annual consumption of this type of agricultural product; P_city and P_country are the urban and rural per capita consumption of this type of agricultural product in the corresponding year, respectively; N_city and N_country are the urban and rural resident populations in the corresponding year, respectively.

The virtual water flow process of regional agriculture in the production–consumption model is used to compare the relationship between the total production water footprint and the total consumption water footprint of agricultural products in the region [14].

When analyzing the virtual water flow in the region, the agricultural products consumed are assumed to be from the region, and all the remaining agricultural products after consumption are exported. The corresponding calculation formula is as follows:

\(W_{\text {flow }}=W-W_{\text {con }}\)     (7)

where Wflow is the virtual water flow, W the regional virtual water production, and Wcon the regional virtual water consumption. If W ＞ W_con, i.e., the virtual water in the region is exported to other regions (countries), then the difference is the output. If W ＜ W_con, the regional virtual water must be input from other regions (countries), and the difference is the input amount.

The water stress index (β) [15] is used to reflect the occupancy of the regional production water footprint on the available water resources in the region. It is calculated as follows:

\(\beta=\frac{W}{G}\)       (8)

where G is the amount of available regional water resources.

《3.3 Data sources》

3.3 Data sources

Daily meteorological dates were obtained from 181 meteorological stations in the TWL during the period 2000–2018 in this study. The meteorological data includes the daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, sunshine duration, precipitation, and water vapor pressure. The China Meteorological Data Service Center (http://data.cma.cn/) provided those data, whose missing data rate was less than 0.1%. A few missing data were interpolated based on data from neighboring stations. The data of crop yield, sowing area, consumption, and population were derived from the statistical and economic yearbooks of relevant provinces. The amount of available water resources was based on the water resource bulletin of relevant provinces.

《4 Trend analysis of agricultural production and trade water use in Northwest China》

4 Trend analysis of agricultural production and trade water use in Northwest China

《4.1 Crop production water footprint》

4.1 Crop production water footprint

From 2000 to 2018, the 𝑊 of the TWL first increased and then decreased. Specifically, it increased from 1.243 × 10¹¹ m³ in 2000 to 1.7 × 10¹¹ m³ in 2015, and then decreased continuously owing to the decrease in the crop planting area. From the perspective of water use structure, the proportions of 𝑊_{g𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛} and 𝑊_blue remained at 67.2%–72 % and 28.0%–32.8%, respectively (Table 1), which were associated with the lower amount of rainfall in the TWL and the necessity for supplementing more irrigation water.

《Table 1》

Table 1. 𝑊 and proportions of 𝑊_{g𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛} and 𝑊_blue in TWL（2000–2018).

The temporal and spatial changes in the 𝑊 of the TWL from 2000 to 2018 differed significantly (Fig. 1). From the perspective of time distribution, QCXXN, QCXXB, and HH changed significantly. Based on year 2015 as the cutoff point, the 𝑊 first increased and then decreased. The 𝑊 of BGH and HX had been increasing in the past two decades, with annual growth rates of 23.2% and 27.8%, respectively. The changes in the 𝑊 of QCXDB and QCXDN were slight, i.e., it increased by only 9.4 × 10⁸ m³ and 34.5 × 10⁹ m³, respectively. The 𝑊 of CDM differed significantly from those of the other districts, which remained at 6 × 10⁸–8.9 × 10⁸ m³.

《Fig.1》

Fig.1. Change trend of crop production water footprint in TWL (2000–2018).

Spatially, the W of HH was the largest (6.319 × 10¹⁰ m³), followed by that of QCXXB (Fig. 1). The crops in these two regions constituted more than 60% of the total production, and the agricultural water consumption was high. The W of BGH and QCXXN was 1 × 10¹⁰–3 × 10¹⁰, whereas those of the other four regions were less than 1 × 10¹⁰ m³. Among them, CDM constituted the smallest proportion (only 0.4%–0.6%), which was associated closely with the local crop growth pattern. The average annual crop yield of CDM was only 2.7 × 10⁵ t, and the annual average crop planting area was only 7.42 × 10⁴ hm², which constituted 0.5% of the planting area of the TWL.

From 2000 to 2018, the evolution of the proportion of W in the TWL is as shown in Fig. 2. The average W ratio of specific crops over the years is ranked in the following order: grain > fruit > cotton > oilseeds > vegetable > grass. The proportion of W of grain decreases (from 67.4% in 2000 to 54.3% in 2018), whereas the proportion of W of fruit and cotton increases significantly (from 9.1% and 7.4% in 2000 to 15% and 13.8% in 2018, respectively). This is associated closely with changes in the crop planting area and planting structure. The planting area of grain decreases by 13.1% from 2000 to 2018, whereas the planting areas of cotton and fruit increase by 7.1% and 5.8%, respectively.

《Fig.2》

Fig.2. Evolution of proportion of crop production water footprint in TWL (2000–2018).

The structure characteristics of W in specific districts of the TWL in 2018 is shown in Fig. 3. Fruits constituted the largest proportion of W in QCXDB (55.9%). The W of QCXDN is primarily cotton (45.6 %). The W of HX, CDM, BGH, and HH is primarily grain (constituting 68.2%, 64.6%, 69.9%, and 65.4%, respectively). The W of QCXXB and QCXXN are primarily grain and cotton, respectively.

《Fig.3》

Fig.3. Structure characteristics of W in TWL (2018).

《4.2 Crop virtual water flow》

4.2 Crop virtual water flow

The TWL is a virtual water export area whose output increased from 8.55 × 10⁹ m³ in 2000 to 2.178 × 10¹⁰ m³ in 2018. BGH, HX, QCXXN, QCXXB, QCXDN, and QCXDB were the main outflow areas. Among them, the output of QCXXB virtual water was the highest, i.e., 49.7%– 83.5% of the total output of the Qice Line, and it increased continuously (from 9.87 × 10⁹ m³ in 2000 to 1.528 × 10¹⁰ m³ in 2018). HH was the main inflow area, and the inflow increased from 7.96 × 10⁸ m³ in 2000 to 1.144 × 10¹⁰ m³ in 2018. Under the effects of production and the consumption structure, the Wflow in CDM changed significantly from the outflow area to the inflow area since 2005 (Table 2). Virtual water outflow gradually became an important reason affecting the shortage of water resources in the TWL, which posed a direct threat to the local water security.

《Table 2》

Table 2. Evolution trend of Wflow in TWL (2000–2018).

Note: The positive and negative values of Wflow are expressed as the output and input amounts, respectively.

The export volume of virtual water from the TWL increased from 2000 to 2018, where cotton and fruit were the main crops (Fig. 4). The average annual yield of these two crops constituted 23.5% of the total crop yield in the TWL; their export volumes increased from 7.59 × 10⁹ and 6.68×10⁹ m³ (2000) to 2.026 × 10¹⁰ m³ and 1.186 × 10¹⁰ m³ (2018), respectively. The import of virtual water was primarily due to grain, as the grain consumption of residents in the region relies on imports. The water footprint of regional grain production could not satisfy the regional consumption.

《Fig.4》

Fig.4. Evolution trend of virtual water flow of specific crops in TWL (2000–2018).

In 2018, grain virtual water inflow areas were concentrated in HH and QCXXN. The virtual water outflow areas of cotton were primarily concentrated at QCXXB, QCXXN, QCXDB, and QCXDB, whereas those of fruits were concentrated in QCXXB, QCXXN, QCXDB, QCXDN, and HH (Table 3). Because of the local water shortage, the excessive development and utilization of physical water posed a threat to the regional water security.

Table 3. W_flow of specific crops in TWL (2018).

《4.3 Pressure assessment of regional water resources》

4.3 Pressure assessment of regional water resources

The distribution of water resource pressure index in the TWL is shown in Fig. 5. As shown, the water resource pressure indexes of HH, BGH, QCXXB and HX exceed 1. Furthermore, the water footprint of crop production in these areas is larger than the amount of available water resources, whereas the regional water resources are overloaded. The agricultural production water consumption of CDM constituted the smallest proportion of the available water resources in the area. The water stress number is only 0.1, which is associated closely with the regional production structure.

《Fig.5》

Fig.5. Spatial distribution of multiyear average water resource pressure index in TWL (2000–2018).

An analysis of the production–consumption–trade pattern in the TWL from 2000 to 2018 shows that the proportion of local consumption decreased from 93.1% in 2000 to 86.4% in 2018. As the product transportation volume increased, the output of virtual water increased in the TWL (Fig. 6). This shows that the planting scale and output of crops in the TWL not only satisfied the consumption demands within the basin itself, but also satisfied the demands of other places through trade to achieve greater benefits. However, this regional economic development model based on agriculture resulted in a significant amount of virtual water consumption and output, which necessitates more physical irrigation water support. Consequently, the local agricultural water consumption increased continuously.

《Fig.6》

Fig.6. Evolution trend of virtual water production/consumption of crops in TWL (2000–2018).

The production–consumption–trade pattern of fruits and cotton in the TWL was further investigated based on the virtual water flow of crops. From 2000 to 2018, the virtual water output of fruits and cotton in the TWL constituted 21.5%–59.1% and 82.9%–91.6% of W, respectively (Fig. 7). Water resources was embedded in fruits and cotton and exported from economically underdeveloped regions in the Northwest to economically relatively developed regions in the east, and from water-deficient to water-rich areas. Consequently, the demand for water resources in the northwest intensified.

《Fig.7》

Fig.7. Proportion of virtual water output and local consumption of fruits and cotton in TWL (2000–2018).

《5 Conclusions and control strategies》

5 Conclusions and control strategies

《5.1 Conclusion》

5.1 Conclusion

The crop production water footprint in the TWL exhibited a fluctuating increasing trend from 2000 to 2018. Grain exhibited the largest water footprint in the production, followed by fruits and cotton. The temporal and spatial distributions of the water footprint of crop production in the TWL were uneven and different. The water footprint of crop production in HH was much larger than those in other regions.

The virtual water flow of crops in the TWL increased daily, i.e., from 8.55 × 10⁹ m³ in 2000 to 2.178 × 10¹⁰ m³ in 2018. The export of fruits and cotton rendered the TWL a virtual water outflow zone. HH was the main virtual water inflow area, whereas QCXXB was the main virtual water outflow area.

From 2000 to 2018, 21.5%–59.1 % and 82.9%–91.6% of the water footprints of fruit and cotton productions in the TWL were used for trade to achieve greater benefits. The local water resources system was severely overloaded and could not support the demands of regional social and economic development. In this context, external water transfer can be considered to alleviate the shortage of water resources in this area and improve water security.

《5.2 Control strategies》

5.2 Control strategies

Comprehensively considering the economic benefits and the amount of local water resources, optimizing the planting structure, adjusting the trade structure, and implementing physical–virtual water regulation measures are some measures that can be implemented to alleviate problems pertaining to the spatial dislocation of water and soil resources. Furthermore, the safety of water resources can be ensured through sustainable development.

5.2.1 Optimize crop planting structure and harness agricultural water saving potential

To ensure regional food security and maintain the self-sufficiency rate of rations, the relevant authorities in Northwest China can adjust the crop planting structure, reduce the area of crops with high water consumption, plan the crop planting space, and improve the fit of the planting layout. Additionally, they can actively develop development projects such as wind and solar power generation projects, as well as increase the intensity of new energy projects to provide indirect conditions for reducing the use of water resources and improving water security. Furthermore, they can strengthen clean agricultural production, promote the use of less pesticides and chemical fertilizers, reduce the discharge of agricultural gray water, and improve the recycling efficiency of agricultural water resources.

5.2.2 Adjust trade structure and promote coordinated development of virtual water economy and regions

As the key location for the New Eurasian Continental Bridge Economic Corridor and the China–Central Asia–West Asia Economic Corridor, Northwest China contributes significantly to the Belt and Road initiative and the new round of western development. The five Central Asian countries are agricultural countries that are typically associated with animal husbandry and planting (grain, oil, and cotton). Their technical expertise for cotton breeding and planting, cotton physiology and biochemistry, and irrigation systems expertise is high [16]. China offers advantages in terms of agricultural technology, management, and finance. Meanwhile, cantaloupe, grape, safflower, tomato, and other cash crops from Northwest China are well known worldwide. Therefore, we can exploit the agricultural complementarity and mutual benefit between China and Central Asia to solve the problem of water shortage in the TWL from the perspective of product trade. For example, to ensure the self-sufficiency of local food, the relevant authorities can increase the local food import accordingly, increase the import of water resource intensive products, and alleviate the contradiction of local water resource shortage. Moreover, they can strengthen technical cooperation with Central Asian countries, overcome the restrictions of water resources and planting technology to increase unit yields, and promote the application of various water-saving irrigation technologies to achieve improvements.

5.2.3 Implement regulation measures of physical–virtual water cycle to alleviate spatial dislocation of water and soil resources

Water resources are vital in ensuring the production of cotton and fruits in Northwest China, as well as the stability of the national textile, fruits, meat, eggs, and dairy industries. The TWL has exported a significant amount of virtual water in the form of cotton, fruits, vegetables, and oil. The indirect output of virtual water caused by the outward transfer of agricultural products has disrupted the local available water resources in Northwest China. If the problem of water source for crop planting cannot be solved, then the balance of arable land occupation and supplementation as well as the guarantee of food security will be difficult to realize through the development of land in the northwest region [17]. Currently, water for the water transfer project in Northwest China is sourced from the interior, and no external water source is transferred. From the perspective of maintaining regional water balance, the continuous outflow of virtual water further intensifies the problem of water resource in Northwest China. Without the replenishment of external water resource, regional economic development will be hindered and ecological crisis intensified.

Hence, the inadequacy experienced in Northwest China should be compensated in the form of physical water. Meanwhile, the relevant authorities should promote the construction of a large national water network, ensure the safety of agricultural production through water transfer across river basins, and realize the sustainable development of physical–virtual water balance in Northwest China.

《Compliance with ethics guidelines》

Compliance with ethics guidelines

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest or financial conflicts to disclose.

In the global changing era, it is essential to analyze the future trend of agricultural development in China and forecast the target, direction, and path of China’s agricultural modernization toward 2050 in order to provide support for policy making. In this paper, we first investigate agricultural development in the past four decades and then analyze the opportunities and challenges to be faced. Finally, we forecast the future agricultural development in China. Our study shows that China’s agriculture has experienced a rapid growth for the past four decades, underlying which technology progress, institutional innovation, marketization reform, and public investment are attributed as the four major driving forces. Looking forward to the future, agricultural development in China still encounters a lot of challenges including slowdown in productivity growth, degradation in soil and water, and uncertainty of the global supply chain. This implies that, toward 2050, China should stick to the principles of innovation, green, high efficiency, and sustaintability, and accelerate agricultural modernization through efficiently producing more high-valued and green products, so as to maintain domestic food security and self-sustained agricultural supply. To achieve the long-term goal, the government should develop seven major strategies with a focus on biological technology and seedling innovation, and initiate a series of agriculture-supportive policies such as prioritized development of agriculture, innovative land reforms, farmers training, high-value agriculture support, and global agricultural trade management.

《1 Introduction》

1 Introduction

To realize China’s two-stage goals—socialist modernization by 2035 and a new type of industrialization, informationization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization by 2050 (“four modernizations”)—China should uphold the development philosophy of innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing, and advance the four modernizations synchronously. In due course, the country faces a series of challenges in ensuring national food security, ecological security, sustainable development, and intensified market competition, among others, in terms of agricultural modernization. These challenges include resource misallocation and differences in technology innovation between urban and rural areas, among others. Therefore, new ideas for future agricultural development in China are required.

Currently, a large variety of research has been conducted to analyze future trend of agricultural development in China; however, most of these studies are limited to trend prediction [1,2], with insufficient macro research and their impact analyses. The research is dominated by future food security issues, with no discussion on the overall situation of agricultural development [3,4]. It only forecasts the supply and demand of main agricultural products in the short term (to 2030) [5,6], without reflecting long-term changes toward 2050. Given this, this study has, based on the past experience in China’s agricultural development as well as opportunities and challenges ahead, pursued to clarify the phased development goals for 2035 and 2050, and carried out forward-looking and strategic research focusing on modernization of cropping and livestock industries, production mode and industrial value chain, resources, environment and sustainable development, and other key directions, in a bid to provide a basic reference for research and macroscopic decision-making in the related field.

《2 China's agricultural development: achievements and evolution across regions》

2 China's agricultural development: achievements and evolution across regions

《2.1 Agricultural development: reforms and achievements》

2.1 Agricultural development: reforms and achievements

The past four decades have seen rapid growth in China’s agriculture. The country uses 5% of the world’s freshwater resources and 8% of the world’s arable land to provide 95% of the food for 18% of the world’s population. Between 1978 and 2020, the agricultural GDP grew at an average rate of 4.5% per year. While the outputs of rice, wheat, and corn increased annually at average rates of 1.1%, 2.3%, and 3.9%, respectively, the growth rates of cotton (4%), oil (6.1%), sugar (5.2%), and fruit (11.1%) output, as well as vegetable cropping areas (5.1%) were more pronounced, and the outputs of meat and aquatic products grew annually at average rates of 5.7% and 7%, respectively [7]. Agricultural growth and structural optimization have not only improved food security for both urban and rural residents but also met the demands for food consumption and nutrition improvement. Agricultural development has also contributed to non-agricultural employment growth in rural areas, promoting rural economic transformation and improving farmers’ income [8,9].

Advances in science and technology, institutional innovation, market reform, and public agricultural investment are the four main driving forces of China’s agricultural growth. These forces are selected sequentially to achieve phased development goals, which are also essential for the successful transformation of food systems. The implementation of the household responsibility system marked the start of the 40 year’s reform process in rural areas, which helped improve land and labor productivity. At the middle and later stages of the reform, many new rural institutional innovations have played a crucial role in improving agricultural productivity and increasing farmers’ income [10]. The reform of the agricultural innovation system has promoted agricultural technology progress and agricultural total factor productivity growth, which has grown annually at an average rate of nearly 3% in the past four decades. More than half of this growth has been driven by technological progress [5,6]. Market reform and opening-up have improved the efficiency of resource allocation, fueled the adjustment of agricultural production structure, and increased farmers’ income [11]. As investment in rural infrastructure construction has increased steadily, the conditions for agricultural production have been significantly improved and the foundation for agricultural production has been cemented [12,13]. Although agricultural development and reform in China have experienced a few detours in particular periods, the result is remarkable [14].

《2.2 Regional layout evolution of agriculture and its determinants》

2.2 Regional layout evolution of agriculture and its determinants

Over the past 40 years, the cropping and livestock production, the way of agricultural production and management patterns have changed along with the changes in regional resource endowment, comprehensive advantages, and social and economic conditions (Fig.1). Overall, China’s agricultural production has gradually shifted toward the north and stabilized. While maintaining an increase in grain production, the geographical distribution of agriculture has transformed from the “shipment of grain from the south to the north” mode to the “shipment of grain from the north to the south”. Cash crops are growing rapidly, and the production layout is subject to remarkable changes. Regional comparative advantages of vegetables gradually emerge in neighbors of large urban areas; after the rapid growth of livestock products, regional production layout tends to be stable, but subject to recent fluctuations. The shift of agricultural production toward North China made the sustainable development of agriculture in the north of Huaihe River a critical issue as the Huang–Huai–Hai Region, short of water, has become the main production area for more than 10 kinds of main agricultural products. Regarding the impact of factor endowment on the regional distribution of agricultural production, a marked trend has emerged; that is, land-intensive agricultural products are moving northward, while capital-intensive agricultural products are moving to developed regions. For example, the production of land-intensive agricultural products such as grain and cotton is gradually moving to the north. Limited by capital investment and infrastructure construction, the production of vegetables, aquaculture, and other high-value agricultural products is gradually moving in with the improvement of infrastructure in southern China, especially in developed coastal areas.

《Fig.1》

Fig.1. Evolution of agricultural production across regions in China (1978–2017).

Source: China Statistical Yearbook.

The evolution of the regional distribution of agricultural production depends mainly on five factors: (1) Regional comparative advantages are the main factor leading to changes in the regional distribution of agricultural production; (2) although national water conservancy developments and policy interventions boost agricultural production in North China, the water shortage has started to restrict the expansion of agricultural production distribution in the north; (3) technological progress and improved transportation conditions have helped optimize the regional distribution of agricultural production; (4) social and economic factors such as population and income growth have driven the expansion of agricultural production, and then affected the distribution of agricultural production; (5) and with openness to the outside world, the pressure of water and soil resources in China has been alleviated and the regional distribution of local agricultural production has been optimized.

《3 Opportunities and challenges facing future agricultural development in China》

3 Opportunities and challenges facing future agricultural development in China

《3.1 Opportunities for future agricultural development》

3.1 Opportunities for future agricultural development

Implementing rural revitalization has provided policy priorities for agricultural and rural development. To satisfy the general requirements of “thriving business, ecology and livability, rural civilization, effective governance, and life in plenty,” numerous plans and policies have been successively developed to facilitate rural revitalization. For example, the Strategic Plan for Rural Revitalization (2018–2022) proposed guidelines and specific requirements for implementing a rural revitalization strategy and made overall arrangements for agricultural and rural development at the present stage.

Thanks to innovation in agricultural technology, especially the application and re-innovation of digital, genetic, and equipment, and cross-border technologies in agriculture, agricultural modernization will be expedited. With the advent of the 4th Industrial Revolution, technological progress will lead agriculture into a modern agriculture stage featuring sustainable development; emerging technologies related to agriculture, such as Internet Plus, big data, and robots, will also be applied gradually. Relying on computers, network communications, genetic engineering, and other technologies, the 4th Industrial Revolution renders all-round and profound changes in global agriculture through revolutionizing agricultural and non-agricultural technologies. It will completely reverse the pattern of global agricultural production and trade and empower the development of modern intelligent agriculture.

Changes in the international market environment and China’s international status also provide great opportunities for agricultural development. In the past 20 years, China’s international status has been constantly lifted, creating favorable conditions for supplementing domestic demand through agricultural trade in the future. Today, China is in need of importing a large number of feed and oil products to relieve the pressure on domestic agricultural production due to constrained supplies of water and soil resources. For example, in 2020, soybean imports exceeded 1.2 × 10⁸ t (Fig. 2); as personal income continues to rise, a firm foundation will be laid for food security through agricultural trade [15]. In recent years, through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has developed good trade and investment relations with countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, South America, and other regions. This provides a foundation for these countries to conduct an international division of labor with China based on comparative advantages and thus creates favorable conditions for China to ensure domestic food security by utilizing international arable land and irrigation water resources in the international market in the future.

《Fig.2》

 Fig.2. China’s imports and exports of major agricultural commodities in 2020.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China.

《3.2 Challenges for future agricultural development 》

3.2 Challenges for future agricultural development 

Owing to factors such as meeting the growing demand for food and the challenge of declining comparative advantages of main agricultural commodities, the demand for livestock products and feed grains (corn and soybean) is increasing. The limited supply of labor, water, and soil resources also makes it difficult for the country to reverse the rising trend of agricultural production costs. In recent years, growing food demands have posed challenges to food security in China [16]. There are signs that the total quantity and structure of food supply and demand are not easy to be balanced. For example, China’s total food self-sufficiency rate dropped from 100% before 2008 to approximately 95% by 2020. Such a decline is expected to continue over the next decade. Among the self-sufficiency rates of all kinds of food, the self-sufficiency rate of grain has reached 98% by 2020 and is expected to fall to 88% by 2030.

Relevant systems and mechanisms are required to tackle the challenges in the course of agricultural technology innovation and development. Currently, public research and development (R&D) institutions perform mixed functions of basic research and applied research, which negatively affects enterprises to become the main body of technological innovation. The lack of incentive mechanisms erodes researchers’ innovation capacity. Specifically, the inaccurate orientation of agricultural scientific research reform makes it difficult to deepen the reform of the agricultural technology systems; public institutions monopolize almost all directions of agricultural research, restricting the enthusiasm of enterprises to engage in agricultural R&D; and the market competitiveness of innovative technologies of government-led agricultural R&D systems remains low.

Labor productivity in agriculture has long been lower than that in industrial and service sectors, and agricultural total factor productivity is growing at a lower speed with increasing cross-regional disparity, which reduces agricultural vitality (Fig. 3). The scale economy of production and degree of mechanization popularization are still limited by the current method of agricultural production. Factors such as an insufficient extension of agricultural industry chains, unreasonable cross-link allocation of value-added agricultural products, and factor-market distortion result in the misallocation of land and labor resources, seriously restrict the potential to improve agricultural labor productivity in the future.

《Fig.3》

Fig.3. Input, ouput, and total factor productivity index of agriculture in China (1978–2016) (1978=100).

Agricultural policy support systems dominated by grain, cotton, oil, and sugar are unable to support the development of high-value and sustainable agriculture in the future. Restricted by trade agreements of the World Trade Organization and other international agencies, the scope for the implementation of some subsidies is unsustainable. Underpinned by market-oriented reforms, the agricultural product market has developed rapidly in China. However, many subsidy policies aimed at ensuring domestic food security and farmers’ income have led to market distortions and affected the distribution of production factors and their utilization efficiency. For example, in recent years, China has implemented policies for the purchase and sale of agricultural products and price interventions, stimulating short-term domestic production. However, while playing their expected roles, these policies have also distorted the market and affected the allocation of resources, aggravating the imbalance of agricultural production structure. Supported by domestic policies, China’s comparative advantages in main agricultural products (except vegetables and fruits) have declined significantly in recent years (Fig. 4).

《Fig.4》

Fig.4. Changing trend of comparative advantages of main agricultural commodities in China (1993–2018).

Source: Statistics of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

We are facing great challenges in terms of resources and the environment for agricultural production. Currently, 393 million mu (1 mu ≈ 666.7 m²) of arable land in China is exposed to pollution to various degrees, with the arable layer becoming generally shallower. These phenomena, including soil compaction and soil erosion in North China, black land degradation in Northeast China, soil consolidation and acidification in East and Central China, heavy metal pollution of land in Southwest and South China, and soil alkalization and soil erosion in Northwest China, have not been effectively alleviated. Amid the increasing shortage of water resources, the proportion of agricultural water use dropped from 88% in 1978 to 60% in 2020, which is likely to continue to decline in the future, and serious overexploitation of groundwater (the amount of underground water for agricultural use in North China exceeded 6.9×10¹⁰ tons in 2020, an increase of 43% from 1998) and the intensification of extreme climate changes may exacerbate the water crisis.

Adjustments to global supply chains in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will pose greater uncertainty to the international market for agricultural products in the future. Although it is safe to say that a global food crisis is unlikely, the continuing pandemic will markedly increase market risks for food supply and distribution, and some countries that rely on food imports face great challenges. Meanwhile, as the global economy and financial markets are further impacted by the pandemic, the complexity of financial markets is growing, and potential market fluctuations are bound to gradually shift to crude oil, minerals, grain, and other commodity markets, which may lead to substantial turbulence in the prices of relevant products.

《4 Judgment on agricultural development trend toward 2050》

4 Judgment on agricultural development trend toward 2050

By 2050, the level and structure of food consumption are expected to be exposed to significant changes. The demand for grain will continue to decline gradually; the demand for feed and animal products will increase and peak around 2035; and the demand for green, safe, and high-value agricultural products will continue to grow. From now to 2035 is a key transitional period for China’s sustainable and modern agricultural development, whereas that from 2035 to 2050 is the period of steady improvement in China’s sustainable and modern agricultural development. Innovation in agricultural technology, reform of rural systems, and increase in agricultural input will become the main driving forces of agricultural total factor productivity and for further promoting the development of green, ecological, efficient, and multi-functional high-value agriculture in the medium and long term. Regional adjustments in agriculture will be accelerated and develop sustainably under the constraints of resources and the environment. Despite mounting uncertainties in the international environment in the short term, international trade will still play an important role in regulating the balance between supply and demand for domestic agricultural products.

First, the demand for food rations continues to fall; the demand for fruits, edible oil, sugar, livestock products, aquatic products, and other foods continues to grow, but at a slower pace and stabilizes after peaking around 2035, with the consumption structure to be further improved and safe, healthy, and nutritious food gaining dominance.

Second, rice and wheat are self-sufficient; soybean imports continue to grow; certain comparative advantages are maintained in vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products that are self-sufficient; the comparative advantage of oil and sugar crop production as well as the self-sufficiency rate of edible oil and sugar continue to decline. For basic self-sufficiency of pork and poultry, corn and soybean imports need to be increased; the self-sufficiency rate of beef and mutton will continue to decline, and this decline can be significantly alleviated by accelerating the development of grass husbandry (Fig. 5).

《Fig.5》

Fig.5. Self-sufficiency rate of main agricultural products by 2035 and 2050 (%).

Third, changing food demand of urban and rural residents and their demand for multi-functional agriculture urge us to develop safe, green, efficient, and multi-functional high-value agriculture. The demand for high-quality rice, wheat, vegetables and fruits, livestock products, aquatic products, as well as high-value agricultural products and services such as agritainment and folk tourism continues to increase.

Fourth, the key to supporting future agricultural development is to maintain sustained and steady growth (2%–3%) of agricultural total factor productivity, which calls for multiple measures in terms of reform of the agricultural technology innovation system, rural institutional innovation, the transformation of production patterns, and the development of high-value agriculture.

Fifth, regional agricultural growth and resource, ecological, and environmental protection gradually tend to be balanced, and the sustainable and efficient agricultural development mode suitable for regional resource endowment gradually takes shape and develops steadily.

Sixth, there is great potential for growth in world food production. Improvements in agricultural productivity and inputs in other developing countries, and the steady development of international agricultural trade, can provide a stronger guarantee for China’s food security supply.

Seventh, despite recent challenges to economic globalization and increasing risks in the international market, the main grain importers and exporters will all appeal to promote international trade, as the spatial distribution of water and soil resources and population in the world is uneven. The trend of trade growth in grain and other agricultural commodities will continue.

《5 Strategies for China‘ s agricultural development toward 2050》

5 Strategies for China's agricultural development toward 2050

《5.1 Development philosophies and strategical plans》

5.1 Development philosophies and strategical plans

China will uphold the innovative, green, efficient, and sustainable development concept, power the development of high-value and sustainable agriculture by stage, and finally realize agricultural modernization in an all-round way to ensure absolute grain security through maintaining independent and controllable domestic grain supply. By 2025, China needs to make institutional and technological innovations with increased R&D investment, advance the supply-side structural reform in the agricultural value chain, and significantly increase the total factor productivity of agriculture. By 2035, China will prioritize the development of modern intelligent agriculture, advance agricultural modernization, and optimize the regional distribution of the development path based on their comparative advantages and carrying capacity of water and soil resources. By 2050, priority will be given to consolidating and upgrading sustainable development and modernization of agriculture.

On the basis of ensuring absolute grain security, efforts will be made to boost the all-round development of green, efficient, and multi-functional high-value agriculture and achieve sustainable development and modernization of agriculture. By 2035 and 2050, the self-sufficiency rates of rice and wheat will reach at least 96% and 95%, respectively, and the overall self-sufficiency rates of grains will reach at least 88% and 85%, respectively. The self-sufficiency rates of pork will reach at least 96% and 95%, respectively; the self-sufficiency rates of beef and mutton will reach at least 70% and 60%, respectively. China will be self-sufficient in poultry, meat, and eggs, and moderately export vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products; the agricultural total factor productivity will grow annually at an average rate of 2%–2.5%. China will adhere to the red lines of arable land and agricultural water consumption, and fully implement modern agriculture with high value and sustainable development by 2025, 2035 (partial implementation), and 2050 (full implementation). 

To practice the above development ideas and realize the development goals in stages, the following five strategies are recommended.

5.1.1 Adhering to the bottom line of ensuring the absolute grain security and the independent and controllable domestic food supply

With only 7% of the world’s freshwater resources and 9% of the world's arable land, China needs to feed 18% of the world's population. Although the proportion of China's population in the world is expected to decrease to 17% by 2035 and 14% by 2050 [1], the proportion of its arable land in the world is also decreasing. In pursuit of sustainable agricultural development when facing limited land supply per capita, China should ensure that total food is independent and controllable on the premise of ensuring absolute security of grain rations related to the national economy and people's livelihood [17,18]. The absolute security of grain rations means that the self-sufficiency rates of rice and wheat should meet the goals for 2035 and 2050. Adhering to the red line of arable land and maintaining a moderate strategic reserve of grain rations at the state level is an important guarantee for absolute food security; efforts to deepen “the reserve of grain rations on land and based on technology” and launch “the reserve of grain rations through political measures” (including the system and mechanism, mode of production, and risk control) are also the key to achieving the goal of independent and controllable food supply.

5.1.2 Innovative development of agricultural total factor productivity

We will establish a system for nurturing technological innovation in the new era and a system and mechanism for ensuring the supply of agricultural inputs, raise the total factor productivity of agriculture from the perspective of productivity, and build an agriculture-promoting system and management system suitable for the development pattern in the new era to significantly increase the total factor productivity in terms of production relations. On one hand, we will build more robust systems and mechanisms for technological innovation and ensure the supply of agricultural inputs in the field of agricultural technology and infrastructure, and raise the total factor productivity directly from the perspective of productivity, which is also a concrete reflection of the strategies of “reserve of grain rations on land and based on technology”. Currently, intensifying efforts should be made to speed up the reform of the agricultural technology system to enhance technological innovation capacity while rationally increasing investment in agricultural infrastructure. On the other hand, we will build sound innovative systems and mechanisms for agricultural productivity improvements, and raise the total factor productivity of agriculture through reforming production relations, ways of production, agricultural production structures, integration of industrial chains and industries, and regional production layouts, among others.

5.1.3 Regional agricultural sustainable development based on comparative advantage and resource carrying capacity

We will strengthen the division of agricultural production across regions and confine the main food producting regions based on the carrying capacity of resources and environments and comparative advantages. Sustainable development patterns suitable for local conditions will be explored for Northeast China (e.g., large-scale modern agriculture), the Huang–Huai–Hai region (e.g., ecological, water-saving, and high-value agriculture), the Huang–Huai–Hai region in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (e.g., ecological high-value agriculture with multiple functions), the Huang–Huai–Hai region in southeastern coastal areas (e.g., ecologically efficient and export-oriented high-value agriculture), the northwest Huang–Huai–Hai region (e.g., water-saving and efficient modern agriculture), the southwest Huang–Huai–Hai region (e.g., ecological and multi-functional characteristic agriculture), and southern hilly and mountain areas (e.g., the combination of planting and breeding and ley-farming).

5.1.4 Actively participating into international cooperation to improve national food supply capacity

We will alleviate the constraints of soil and water and the pressure of resources and the environment for China's agricultural production by active use of domestic and internation resources and markets; give full play to the comparative advantage of agricultural products, enhance the international competitiveness of China's high-value agricultural products; take accurate measures to tackle changes in the international situation, contribute to the management system of trade in bulk agricultural products and build systems and mechanisms for responding to and making pre-plans for international emergencies; support Africa and developing countries in South America in enhancing agricultural production capacity, and meet China's import demands in addition to enhancing agricultural supply capacity worldwide.

5.1.5 Modern agricultural innovation led by system, policy, and investment innovations

China's agricultural development over the past four decades demonstrates that institutional innovation, policy reform (such as technological innovation and market reform), and public input are the main forces driving agricultural growth, which is also the key to the success of agricultural development and reform. To realize the goal of agricultural development for 2050, we will highlight the development concept of reform and innovation; promote institutional improvements in land, water resources, labor, capital, and business organizations in the new era; put in place a modern agricultural policy support system covering agricultural technology, agricultural finance, market reform, and agricultural trade; and foster a complementary and symbiotic agricultural investment model between government public investment (such as farmland irrigation and water conservancy, rural roads, information and communication infrastructure, market infrastructure, and public goods) and social investment (such as peasant household investment and market-oriented investment of agricultural enterprises).

《5.2 Key projects for agricultural development》

5.2 Key projects for agricultural development

A key task in the near future is to promote the transformational development of green, efficient, and multi-functional high-value agriculture, as well as the leapfrog development of smart and ecological modern agriculture. From multiple aspects such as variety, quality, safety, characteristics, efficiency and multi functions such as ecology, culture, and leisure, we will deepen the supply-side structural reform of agriculture and create a good production and market environment for the development of high-value agriculture through institutional and technological innovation and policy support in the fields of production and circulation. We will develop modern, intelligent, and ecological agriculture supported by modern biotechnology, digital technology, and equipment technology, with ecology as the main line and intelligence as the means to lay a solid foundation for leapfrog development of agriculture. Further, we will expand the application of information technologies such as the Internet of Things and cloud computing, boost the development of modern and intelligent agriculture, explore a development model, technical support, and policy guarantee system of ecological agriculture suitable for different regions, industries, and scales, and advance the ecological process of modern agriculture.

While centering on strategic priorities for agricultural development and key links in urgent need, we will implement the following key projects across the board in the near future: (1) Modern biological breeding and seed industry innovation projects to enhance the contribution of germplasm resources to agricultural production and the production capacity of the “reserve of grain rations based on technology”; (2) Project of all-round farmland fertility improvement to increase the production potential for the “reserve of grain rations on land”; (3) farmland irrigation efficiency improvement project to promote the sustainable use of water resources; (4) agricultural ecological environment protection projects to comprehensively improve the quality of agricultural development and the capacity for sustainable development; and (5) technological innovation and personnel training projects to enhance the capacity for innovation in agricultural technology. Next, the following key projects will be implemented across the board: (1) Recycling agriculture projects of integrated planting and breeding; (2) standardized development project of modern agriculture; and (3) modern and intelligent agriculture projects.

《6 Countermeasures and policy recommendations》

6 Countermeasures and policy recommendations

《6.1 Building a sound institutional guarantee system for prioritizing agricultural development》

6.1 Building a sound institutional guarantee system for prioritizing agricultural development

To ensure that agricultural modernization will be partially realized by 2035 and fully by 2050, we should advance the progress of agricultural modernization and intensify the implementation of agricultural development strategies from 2020 to 2035. It is suggested that a system and mechanism for prioritizing agricultural development be established in the near future to provide key guarantees for completely eliminating the dual structure between urban and rural areas and prioritizing agricultural development.

《6.2 Fostering innovation in rural land transferring system and in agricultural production patterns》

6.2 Fostering innovation in rural land transferring system and in agricultural production patterns

By 2025, we will implement the policy of extending the second round of land contracts for another 30 years upon maturity and build a sound system of “separating three rights of contracted rural land”; boost the development of farmland transfer markets; promote orderly annexation of farmland and expand agricultural land operations; foster new types of agribusiness entities full of market vitality such as family farms, cooperatives, agricultural enterprises, and agribusiness consortiums. We will also support the development of social service organizations such as the extension and integration of agricultural, industrial chains and high-quality agricultural mechanization throughout the process, and transform the mode of agricultural production to the development of green, ecological, and multi-functional high-value agriculture. After 2025, we will embrace an all-round improvement stage in all aspects.

《6.3 Reforming the agricultural technology and innovation system》

6.3 Reforming the agricultural technology and innovation system

Before 2025, a new round of agricultural technology system reforms will be launched to strengthen the positioning of basic applied research in the public agricultural sector, build an innovation system for the agricultural technology at a faster pace with enterprises as the main body, and intensify efforts to reform the promotion system for the agricultural technology. After 2025, the innovation system for the agricultural technology will be perfected and innovation capacity will be enhanced in an all-round manner. On one hand, we will encourage enterprises to play a primary role in technological application and industrialization research and define the function of R&D spending in the public sector; on the other hand, we will speed up the establishment of a collaborative and efficient agricultural technology innovation system and create a favorable investment and market environment for agricultural R&D.

《6.4 Implementing education and training programs for improving rural human capital accumulation》

6.4 Implementing education and training programs for improving rural human capital accumulation

Before 2025, we will set a national agricultural technology innovation talent fund for educating and training talent and increase the number of leading talents in various fields related to agriculture, as well as the size of world-class technological innovation teams, issue special laws and regulations related to farmer education and training, establish a multi-channel mechanism for joint investment from the government, society, and farmers, and develop a multi-layered education and training system for farmers. After 2025, we will optimize and adjust the relevant systems and mechanisms in due time, continue to enhance our capacity to guarantee intellectual resources for agricultural technology innovation, and give full play to the fundamental role of the education and training system for farmers.

《6.5 Improving agricultural productivity, developing high-value agriculture, and fueling sustainable development》

6.5 Improving agricultural productivity, developing high-value agriculture, and fueling sustainable development

Before 2025, China will maintain inputs in agricultural R&D, technology adoption, high-standard farmland, and rural infrastructure construction to meet actual needs; advance reforms in the minimum purchase price model for rice and wheat; accelerate the destocking of rice and wheat and branding agricultural products; and make the supply-side structural reform in agriculture to improve its efficiency in all aspects. Further, it will remediate the agricultural environment and control non-point source pollution. We will pursue steady progress in crop rotation and fallow, as well as manage and replace the arable land contaminated by heavy metals; build a robust ecological compensation mechanism; and initiate reforms in agricultural water rights and prices. After 2025, we will continue to provide necessary policy support in a way that drives a comprehensive shift to a model of agricultural productivity improvement, as well as high-quality and sustainable development.

《6.6 Engaging in global value-chain to ensure food security and building global trade governance systems》

6.6 Engaging in global value-chain to ensure food security and building global trade governance systems

Before 2025, we will set special funds to improve agricultural productivity in developing countries in Africa, systematically enhance the ability to address international market fluctuations through China's agricultural trade, step up participation in and promotion of multilateral and bilateral trade agreements, and construct a management system for international trade in staple products, such as soybean and corn. After 2025, we will maintain and intensify input management and achieve the fundamental goal of independent and controllable grain supply in China while providing Chinese solutions to world agricultural development and improving the global agricultural trade governance system.

《Acknowledgment》

Acknowledgment

This publication is based on the findings of the reseach project entitled “Strategic Research on Chinese Agricultural Development toward 2050” by the Project Comprehensive Research Team. The research team include Liu Xu, Huang Jikun, Sheng Yu, Wang Jinxia, Liu Chengfang, Wang Xiaobing, Hou Lingling, Xie Wei (Peking University), Qiu Huanguang (Renmin University of China), Xu Zhigang (Nanjing Agricultural University), Qing Ping (Huazhong Agricultural University), Luo Xiaofeng (Huazhong Agricultural University), Wang Mingli, You Fei, Zheng Haixia, Wang Xiufen (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences), Li Jianqin (Zhejiang University), Zhang Wenbing (Ocean University of China), Zang Ying (South China Agricultural University), Luo Biliang (South China Agricultural University), and Li Jin (Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences).

《Compliance with ethics guidelines》

Compliance with ethics guidelines

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest or financial conflicts to disclose.

Conducting supply-demand prediction and structural adjustment of planting and breeding industries based on changes in food consumption is crucial for ensuring food security of China. This study analyzes the characteristics of food consumption structure and the development trends of planting and breeding industries in China and estimates the demand and supply data of staple grains, feed grains, and forage crops closely related to the planting and breeding industries. The analysis results of supplydemand balance are obtained. Targeted adjustment directions are proposed, including expanding the planting of protein feed crops, oil-bearing crops, and high-quality forage crops; stabilizing the production of livestock and poultry; vigorously developing grassbased animal husbandry; promoting an all-encompassing approach to food; and exploring multiple sources of food. The study also elaborates on the implementation paths: optimizing planting structure by adjusting regional layout, developing circular agriculture that integrates crop farming and animal husbandry, constructing a diversified food supply system, and comprehensively enhancing innovation capabilities regarding agricultural technologies. To better ensure national food security, we proposes to improve the policy and technological support systems, allocate agricultural resources toward  roduction areas, establish a regional collaboration mechanism, and adjust policies and statistical standards for staple grain, feed grain, and forage crop production.

The upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River is an important region in China characterized by ongoing conflicts regarding water resources, food, and energy. To achieve high-quality development of the region, it is essential to identify water, food, and energy security risks and propose corresponding measures. This study examines the basic implications of water-food-energy coordinated development and analyzes the new situation, opportunities, and challenges associated with the coordinated development of water, food, and energy in the region. Focusing on the goals of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, the study proposes a strategic framework for coordinating water, food, and energy development. It further proposes the following suggestions: (1) maximizing the utilization of water resources, (2) taking the energy industry as a pillar industry of the region and enhancing energy production efficiency, (3) ensuring food security by strengthening water support, (4) minimizing the negative impacts of food and energy development on water resources and ecology, and (4) innovating technological and institutional approaches to guarantee water, food, and energy security.

The planting industry is crucial in ensuring food security in China. The development of the planting industry has underpinned the country’s historic transition from merely achieving food sufficiency to enjoying high-quality diets, consequently promoting the gradual improvement of dietary quality among residents. In the new era, the development of the Chinese planting industry faces challenges from internal and external risk factors, such as resource environment pressure, extreme climate impacts, and unstable international geopolitical situations. This study predicts the food supply and demand situations in 2035 and 2050. Results show that net imports of grain in China will mainly focus on soybeans and corn, while the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed and sugar will continue to decline, the self-sufficient rate of peanuts and fruits will rise after declining first, and the vegetables will be more than self-sufficient. Thus, this study provides an overview and summary of the challenges faced by China’s planting industry regarding food security and proposes strategic ideas and policy recommendations for ensuring food security in the new era. These recommendations include improving the planting industry’s production capacity and structure, promoting low-carbon production and the efficient use of resources , optimizing residents’ consumption structure and health concepts, encouraging agricultural technology innovation and equipment development, and innovating new business entities. Major projects regarding technology innovation, quality improvement, ecological protection, and protein substitution are also proposed. Furthermore, we suggest adhering to the overall strategy of “ensuring basic selfsufficiency of grain and absolute security of staple food”, clarifying the industry development priorities by regions, improving the agricultural infrastructure and technology shortcomings, and perfecting the strategic system for responding to major crises, thereby enhancing the level of agricultural development and effectively ensuring food security in China.