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舰船装备大修费；物价指数；协整检验 1

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Electricity demand, GDP and employment: evidence from Italy

Cosimo MAGAZZINO

《能源前沿（英文）》 2014年第8卷第1期页码 31-40 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0296-8

摘要： This paper applies time series methodologies to examine the causal relationship among electricity demand, real per capita GDP and total labor force for Italy from 1970 to 2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is reported, before discussing the data and introducing the econometric techniques used. The results of estimation indicate that one cointegrating relationship exists among these variables. This equilibrium relation implies that, in the long-run, GDP and labor force are correlated negatively, as well as GDP and electricity. Moreover, there is a bi-directional Granger causality flow between real per capita GDP and electricity demand; while labor force does not Granger-cause neither real per capita GDP nor electricity demand. This implies that electricity demand and economic growth are jointly determined at the same time for the Italian case. The forecast error variance decomposition shows that forecast errors in real per capita GDP are mainly caused by the uncertainty in GDP itself, while forecast errors in labor force are mainly resulted from the labor force itself, although aggregate income and electricity are important, too.

关键词： energy policies electricity demand GDP labor force stationarity structural breaks cointegration causality Italy

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基于物价变化的舰船修理成本建模分析研究

张怀强,蒋铁军,王孟

《中国工程科学》 2015年第17卷第5期页码 71-75

摘要：

通过物价变化对舰船修理成本的影响分析，确定了舰船装备修理成本与物价变化之间的内在关联关系。运用计量经济学模型，以工业生产者出厂价格指数与不同型号舰船大修费的时间序列数据为基础，研究物价变化对舰船装备修理成本的影响规律，并通过狄克-富勒检验（ADF）方法检验样本数据的稳定均衡关系。研究表明舰船装备修理成本与物价指数之间的内在关联性是长期稳定的均衡，但物价变化对舰船装备修理成本的影响存在着滞后性。

关键词：舰船装备大修费；物价指数；协整检验