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可靠性 10

可靠度 3

可靠性灵敏度 3

多目标优化 3

失效概率 3

稳健设计 3

优化设计 2

可靠性分析 2

可靠性设计 2

可靠性；维修性；保障性；指标量化 2

寿命 2

时变可靠度 2

结构可靠性 2

Gibbs抽样 1

MCMC模拟 1

Weibull分布 1

一次二阶矩 1

一致性哈希表；副本布局；能源管理；键值存储系统；可靠性 1

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Current status and prospects of reliability systems engineering in China

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 492-502 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0172-2

摘要： This study provides a systematic overview of the advent and evolution of reliability systems engineering (RSE) in China, and the latest RSE development, that is, model-based RSE (MBRSE), is emphatically introduced. The establishment of the system architecture and conceptual models of MBRSE is first described. The fundamental theory and methodology of MBRSE are then elaborated, with a V-model as the core of this approach. The development of various MBRSE platforms and the effectiveness of their implementation over the past 30 years are presented. The prospective trends in the development of RSE in China are outlined.

关键词： reliability effectiveness model-based systems engineering reliability systems engineering

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Human reliability in maintenance task

Pacaiova HANA,

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2010年第5卷第2期页码 184-188 doi: 10.1007/s11465-010-0002-4

摘要： Maintenance management requirements have another dimension in the present as in the past. Looking for the optimal tools of decision processing is hard. The current concepts have represented the integration of theoretical, technical, and management tools whose applications need actual modification. Technical measurements are expensive and take a long time/term, and it is hard to estimate the economical returns. This paper presents the concept of a maintenance management task and its function in preventing major accidents. The importance of considering the reliability of maintenance tasks and the method to reach it are also discussed in this paper.

关键词： maintenance risk assessment failure reliability prevention

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An overview of the reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 531-544 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0167-z

摘要： Power grids deliver energy, and telecommunication networks transmit information. These two facilities are critical to human society. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive overview of the development of reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks. The main purpose of this review is to promote and support the formulation of communication network reliability metrics with reference to the development of power grid reliability. We classify the metrics of power grid into the reliability of power distribution and generation/transmission and the metrics of telecommunication network into connectivity-based, performance-based, and state-based metrics. Then, we exhibit and discuss the difference between the situations of the reliability metrics of the two systems. To conclude this study, we conceive a few topics for future research and development for telecommunication network reliability metrics.

关键词： reliability metrics power grids telecommunication networks

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System reliability and system resilience

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 615-619 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0176-y

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Special issue: Reliability management of complex system

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 477-479 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0175-z

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Reliability design method for steam turbine blades

SHI Jinyuan

《能源前沿（英文）》 2008年第2卷第4期页码 363-368 doi: 10.1007/s11708-008-0073-7

摘要： Based on theories of probability and statistics, and taking static stresses, dynamic stresses, endurance strength, safety ratios, vibration frequencies and exciting force frequencies of blades as random variables, a reliability design method for steam turbine blades is presented. The purport and calculation method for blade reliability are expounded. The distribution parameters of random variables are determined after analysis and numerical calculation of test data. The fatigue strength and the vibration design reliability of turbine blades are determined with the aid of a probabilistic design method and by interference models for stress distribution and strength distribution. Some blade reliability design calculation formulas for a dynamic stress design method, a safety ratio design method for fatigue strength, and a vibration reliability design method for the first and second types of tuned blades and a packet of blades on a disk connected closely, are given together with some practical examples. With these methods, the design reliability of steam turbine blades can be guaranteed in the design stage. This research may provide some scientific basis for reliability design of steam turbine blades.

关键词： design reliability force probability purport reliability design

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A reliability growth model for 300?MW pumped-storage power units

Jinyuan SHI , Yu YANG , Zhicheng DENG ,

《能源前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第3期页码 337-340 doi: 10.1007/s11708-009-0032-y

摘要： A reliability growth model for pumped-storage power units is presented. Ways for estimating and fitting on checking the model’s parameters are given together with analysis results concerning the reliability growth of 300MW pumped-storage power units. On site operation, reliability data show that the reliability growth model conforms to rules of reliability growth tendency. Analysis results of reliability growth indicate that measures taken for improving maintenance and operation by the pumped-storage power companies are effective and that the reliability of the 300MW pumped-storage power units exhibits a rising tendency.

关键词： pump-storage power unit availability reliability growth reliability prediction

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An exploratory study for predicting component reliability with new load conditions

Zhengwei HU, Xiaoping DU

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第14卷第1期页码 76-84 doi: 10.1007/s11465-018-0522-x

摘要： Reliability is important to design innovation. A new product should be not only innovative, but also reliable. For many existing components used in the new product, their reliability will change because the applied Loads are different from the ones for which the components are originally designed and manufactured. Then the new reliability must be re-evaluated. The system designers of the new product, however, may not have enough information to perform this task. With a beam problem as a case study, this study explores a feasible way to re-evaluate the component reliability with new Loads given the following information: The original reliability of the component with respect to the component Loads and the distributions of the new component Loads. Physics-based methods are employed to build the equivalent component limit-state function that can predict the component failure under the new Loads. Since the information is limited, the re-evaluated component reliability is given by its maximum and minimum values. The case study shows that good accuracy can be obtained even though the new reliability is provided with the aforementioned interval.

关键词： reliability component failure mode prediction random variable

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Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

Yimin ZHANG

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第14卷第1期页码 21-32 doi: 10.1007/s11465-018-0512-z

摘要： We studied the reliability of machine components with parameters that follow an arbitrary statistical distribution using the principle of maximum entropy (PME). We used PME to select the statistical distribution that best fits the available information. We also established a probability density function (PDF) and a failure probability model for the parameters of mechanical components using the concept of entropy and the PME. We obtained the first four moments of the state function for reliability analysis and design. Furthermore, we attained an estimate of the PDF with the fewest human bias factors using the PME. This function was used to calculate the reliability of the machine components, including a connecting rod, a vehicle half-shaft, a front axle, a rear axle housing, and a leaf spring, which have parameters that typically follow a non-normal distribution. Simulations were conducted for comparison. This study provides a design methodology for the reliability of mechanical components for practical engineering projects.

关键词： machine components reliability arbitrary distribution parameter principle of maximum entropy

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Reliability prediction and its validation for nuclear power units in service

Jinyuan SHI,Yong WANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年第10卷第4期页码 479-488 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0425-7

摘要： In this paper a novel method for reliability prediction and validation of nuclear power units in service is proposed. The equivalent availability factor is used to measure the reliability, and the equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours and maintenance factor are used for the measurement of inherent reliability. By statistical analysis of historical reliability data, the statistical maintenance factor and the undetermined parameter in its numerical model can be determined. The numerical model based on the maintenance factor predicts the equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours, and the planed outage factor can be obtained by using the planned maintenance days. Using these factors, the equivalent availability factor of nuclear power units in the following 3 years can be obtained. Besides, the equivalent availability factor can be predicted by using the historical statistics of planed outage factor and the predicted equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours. The accuracy of the reliability prediction can be evaluated according to the comparison between the predicted and statistical equivalent availability factors. Furthermore, the reliability prediction method is validated using the nuclear power units in North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) and China. It is found that the relative errors of the predicted equivalent availability factors for nuclear power units of NERC and China are in the range of –2.16% to 5.23% and –2.15% to 3.71%, respectively. The method proposed can effectively predict the reliability index in the following 3 years, thus providing effective reliability management and maintenance optimization methods for nuclear power units.

关键词： nuclear power units in service reliability reliability prediction equivalent availability factors

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A PDEM-based perspective to engineering reliability: From structures to lifeline networks

Jie LI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第5期页码 1056-1065 doi: 10.1007/s11709-020-0636-1

摘要： Research of reliability of engineering structures has experienced a developing history for more than 90 years. However, the problem of how to resolve the global reliability of structural systems still remains open, especially the problem of the combinatorial explosion and the challenge of correlation between failure modes. Benefiting from the research of probability density evolution theory in recent years, the physics-based system reliability researches open a new way for bypassing this dilemma. The present paper introduces the theoretical foundation of probability density evolution method in view of a broad background, whereby a probability density evolution equation for probability dissipative system is deduced. In conjunction of physical equations and structural failure criteria, a general engineering reliability analysis frame is then presented. For illustrative purposes, several cases are studied which prove the value of the proposed engineering reliability analysis method.

关键词： PDEM reliability structure lifeline networks

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Bridging reliability and operations management for superior system availability: Challenges and opportunities

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 391-405 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0206-4

摘要： Recently, firms have begun to handle the design, manufacturing, and maintenance of capital goods through a consolidated mechanism called the integrated product-service system. This new paradigm enables firms to deliver high-reliability products while lowering the ownership cost. Hence, holistic optimization models must be proposed for jointly allocating reliability, maintenance, and spare parts inventory across the entire value chain. In the existing literature, these decisions are often made fragmentally, thus resulting in local optimality. This study reviews the extant works pertaining to reliability-redundancy allocation, preventative maintenance, and spare parts logistics models. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of consolidating these decisions under an integrated reliability-maintenance-inventory framework for attaining superior system availability. Specific interest is focused on the new product introduction phase in which firms face a variety of uncertainties, including installed base, usage, reliability, and trade policy. The goal is to call for tackling the integrated reliability-maintenance-inventory allocation model under a nonstationary operating condition. Finally, we place the integrated allocation model in the semiconductor equipment industry and show how the firm deploys reliability initiatives and after-sale support logistics to ensure the fleet uptime for its global customers.

关键词： system availability product-service integration installed base new product introduction service supply chain reliability-maintenance-inventory optimization

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Evaluation of the contract reliability for alternative infrastructure project delivery: a contract engineering

Bing WANG, Qingbin CUI, Shuibo ZHANG

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2019年第6卷第2期页码 239-248 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0018-3

摘要： Governments at all levels are increasingly motivating the private sector to participate in infrastructure development using alternative project delivery methods to relieve financial burden. When designing contracts, governments usually offer incentives while requiring cost or time guarantee to balance project attractiveness to the private sector and fair protection of public interest. However, a practical and critical problem is how to properly design these provisions. Although previous studies have investigated the value of these provisions, a knowledge gap still exists with respect to methods of fairly and effectively designing such provisions. This study fills this gap by developing a methodology that analyzes the appropriateness of guarantee or warranty provisions for contracts. In this study, a contract reliability index is constructed, and a process of evaluating contract reliability is proposed. The New Mexico Highway 44 project, in which three warranty provision arrangements are investigated, is used as a case study to illustrate the analysis process. Results show that although a ceiling clause can effectively motivate the private sector to participate in the project, it sacrifices a significant amount of public benefits. By contrast, although a warranty option can protect public benefits, it cannot effectively incentivize the private sector. A combination of the ceiling clause and the warranty option will therefore result in improved contract provision design. The proposed methodology in this study is especially useful for governments in properly determining contract clauses in infrastructure development.

关键词： infrastructure development contract design contract reliability guarantee provision contract engineering

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A novel methodology for forecasting gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline systems

Feng CHEN, Changchun WU

《能源前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第2期页码 213-223 doi: 10.1007/s11708-020-0672-5

摘要： In this paper, a novel systematic and integrated methodology to assess gas supply reliability is proposed based on the Monte Carlo method, statistical analysis, mathematical-probabilistic analysis, and hydraulic simulation. The method proposed has two stages. In the first stage, typical scenarios are determined. In the second stage, hydraulic simulation is conducted to calculate the flow rate in each typical scenario. The result of the gas pipeline system calculated is the average gas supply reliability in each typical scenario. To verify the feasibility, the method proposed is applied for a real natural gas pipelines network system. The comparison of the results calculated and the actual gas supply reliability based on the filed data in the evaluation period suggests the assessment results of the method proposed agree well with the filed data. Besides, the effect of different components on gas supply reliability is investigated, and the most critical component is identified. For example, the 48th unit is the most critical component for the SH terminal station, while the 119th typical scenario results in the most severe consequence which causes the loss of 175.61×10 m gas when the 119th scenario happens. This paper provides a set of scientific and reasonable gas supply reliability indexes which can evaluate the gas supply reliability from two dimensions of quantity and time.

关键词： natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability evaluation index Monte Carlo method hydraulic simulation

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Jack up reliability analysis: An overview

Ahmad IDRIS, Indra Sati Hamonangan HARAHAP, Montasir Osman Ahmed ALI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2018年第12卷第4期页码 504-514 doi: 10.1007/s11709-017-0443-5

摘要： Jack up is a mobile unit used for oil and gas exploration and production in offshore fields. On demand, the unit is moved and installed in a given location and used for a period up to 12 months before being un-installed and moved to another location. Due to its mobility and re-usability, when the unit is offered for use in a given offshore location, its suitability in terms of safe operation is evaluated in accordance with the guidelines of Site Specific Assessment (SSA) of jack up. When the unit failed safety assessment criteria, the guideline recommended that it is re-assessed by increasing the complexity of the assumptions and methods used. Reliability analysis theories are one of the frameworks recommended for the safety assessment of the units. With recent developments in uncertainty and reliability analysis of structures subject to stochastic excitation, this study aims at providing a review on the past developments in jack up reliability analysis and to identify possible future directions. The results from literature reviewed shows that failure probabilities vary significantly with analysis method used. In addition, from the variants of reliability analysis approach, the method of time dependent reliability for dynamic structures subject to stochastic excitation have not been implemented on jack ups. Consequently, suggestions were made on the areas that need further examination for improvement of the efficiency in safety assessment of the units using reliability theories.

关键词： jack up reliability analysis uncertainty analysis review of jack up