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《工程(英文)》 >> 2023年 第20卷 第1期 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2022.06.004

中国碳减排与空气质量改善及相关健康效益之间的协同效应

a State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of the Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
b Institute for Carbon Neutrality, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
c Beijing Laboratory of Environmental Frontier Technologies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
d State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of the Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China

收稿日期: 2021-11-08 修回日期: 2022-04-28 录用日期: 2022-06-14 发布日期: 2022-07-05

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摘要

协同治理被认为是中国应对气候变化和空气污染防治双重挑战的关键措施。但是,目前仍然没有一个指标能够全面评估协同效应,现有的研究缺乏一个一致的框架用于比较各研究间结果。为此,本研究对协同指标进行了定义,指标意义为单位GDP的污染物产生量变化所带来的减排效应。通过耦合迪氏指数分解分析方法(LMDI)、排放-浓度响应曲面模型(RSM)和全球暴露反应关系模型(GEMM)构建综合分析框架,用于评估中国碳减排对大气污染物减排和公众健康的协同效应。研究结果表明,协同效应对SO2、NOx和PM2.5(空气动力学直径不大于2.5 μm的主要颗粒物)的减排作用越来越重要。具体而言,协同控制对SO2、NOx和PM2.5的减排量从“十一五”时期(2006—2010 年)的3.1 Mt、1.4 Mt和0.3 Mt增加到“十二五”时期(2011—2015 年)的5.6 Mt、3.7 Mt和1.9 Mt。与无控情景相比,协同效应使得PM2.5年均浓度降低了15%,从而在2015 年避免了29 万例(95%置信区间:28~30)由PM2.5引起的额外死亡。协同控制对于空气质量改善和公众健康保护的效应在人口密集的我国发达东部省市更加显著。未来随着城市化和碳中和进程的推进,协同效应有望继续增强。发达地区提前实现气候目标将同时为空气质量和公众健康带来更大的协同效益。

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