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A surrogate model for uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear large-scale

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2023, Volume 17, Issue 12,   Pages 1813-1829 doi: 10.1007/s11709-023-0007-9

Abstract: The dynamic global sensitivity of elastic and elastoplastic structures was analyzed in the uncertaintyThe model considered the predominant sources of uncertainty that have a significant influence on theresults show that surrogate modeling has high computational efficiency and acceptable accuracy in the uncertainty

Keywords： large-scale dome structure     surrogate model     global sensitivity analysis     uncertainty quantification    

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Modeling the impact of uncertainty in emissions trading markets with bankable permits

Yongliang ZHANG, Bing ZHANG, Jun BI, Pan HE

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2013, Volume 7, Issue 2,   Pages 231-241 doi: 10.1007/s11783-012-0431-x

Abstract: The various forms of uncertainty that firms may face in bankable emission permit trading markets willThis research explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future input costs and output pricesIncreased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes aFinally, safety valves, both low-side and high-side, are suggested to reduce the impact of uncertainty

Keywords： uncertainty     bankable     emission trading     market performance    

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Comprehensive Discussion on the Extension of Generalized Uncertainty Systems Theory

Wang Qingyin,Lii Ruihua

Strategic Study of CAE 2005, Volume 7, Issue 10,   Pages 16-22

Abstract:

Based on comprehensive discussion on the connotation of generalized uncertainty systems theory, thispaper discusses the extension of generalized uncertainty systems theory as well as the basic frame andIt is a base to study generalized uncertainty systems theory.

Keywords： generalized uncertainty information     uncertainty mathematics     generalized uncertainty systems theory    

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Key uncertainty events impacting on the completion time of highway construction projects

Alireza MOGHAYEDI, Abimbola WINDAPO

Frontiers of Engineering Management 2019, Volume 6, Issue 2,   Pages 275-298 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0022-7

Abstract: This paper examines the uncertainty events encountered in the process of constructing highways, and evaluatesThe research made use of a review of extant literature in the area of uncertainty management, and modelingAn uncertainty matrix for South African highway projects was developed, using a quantitative model andIt emerged from the study that the uncertainty events affecting the construction time of highway projectstime differently, through a combination of the uncertainty events of the individual construction activities

Keywords： ANFIS     construction time     impact assessment     highway project     South Africa     uncertainty    

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Uncertainty of concrete strength in shear and flexural behavior of beams using lattice modeling

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2023, Volume 17, Issue 2,   Pages 306-325 doi: 10.1007/s11709-022-0890-5

Abstract: This paper numerically studied the effect of uncertainty and random distribution of concrete strengthCapability of lattice modeling was highlighted as an efficient tool to account for uncertainty in statistical

Keywords： lattice modeling     shear failure     flexural failure     uncertainty     deficiency     numerical simulation    

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Evaluation of measurement uncertainty of the high-speed variable-slit system based on the Monte Carlo

Yin ZHANG, Jianwei WU, Kunpeng XING, Zhongpu WEN, Jiubin TAN

Frontiers of Mechanical Engineering 2020, Volume 15, Issue 4,   Pages 517-537 doi: 10.1007/s11465-020-0589-z

Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic and static error transfer model and uncertainty evaluation method for aFinally, the uncertainty of the blade displacement measurement is evaluated using the Monte Carlo method

Keywords： air-floating guide rail     error transfer model     driving and following structure     dynamic error     uncertainty    

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Probabilistic seismic response and uncertainty analysis of continuous bridges under near-fault ground

Hai-Bin MA, Wei-Dong ZHUO, Davide LAVORATO, Camillo NUTI, Gabriele FIORENTINO, Giuseppe Carlo MARANO, Rita GRECO, Bruno BRISEGHELLA

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2019, Volume 13, Issue 6,   Pages 1510-1519 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0577-8

Abstract: On this basis, the uncertainty analysis is conducted with the key sources of uncertainty during the finiteAll the results are quantified by the “swing” base on the specific distribution range of each uncertaintyprobabilistic seismic demand model; damping ratio, pier diameter and concrete strength are the main uncertainty

Keywords： continuous bridge     probabilistic seismic demand model     Intensity Measure     near-fault     uncertainty    

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Uncertainty in Knowledge Representation

Li Deyi

Strategic Study of CAE 2000, Volume 2, Issue 10,   Pages 73-79

Abstract: And the difficulty is uncertainty hidden in qualitative concepts, that is the randomness and fuzziness

Keywords： knowledge representation     qualitative concept     uncertainty     cloud model     digital characteristics    

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temperature in automotive engines over coldstart operation in the presence of different random noises and uncertainty

Nasser L. AZAD,Ahmad MOZAFFARI

Frontiers of Mechanical Engineering 2015, Volume 10, Issue 4,   Pages 405-412 doi: 10.1007/s11465-015-0354-x

Abstract: main scope of the current study is to develop a systematic stochastic model to capture the undesired uncertaintyHowever, there exist rare reports which propose an efficient tool for coping with the uncertainty associated

Keywords： automotive engine     calibration     coldstart operation     Gaussian process regression machine (GPRM)     uncertainty    

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The Argument Foundation of Generalized Uncertainty Systems Theory

Wang Qingyin,Guo Litian,Xie Jianhua,Liu Zhiyong

Strategic Study of CAE 2004, Volume 6, Issue 3,   Pages 25-29

Abstract:

The paper discusses the brief development of uncertainty system theory at home and abroad, gives thedefinition of uncertainty systems, and presents the basic conception, basic structure, argument foundation

Keywords： uncertainty information     generalized uncertainty system     basic structure    

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An integrated optimization and simulation approach for air pollution control under uncertainty in open-pit

Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2019, Volume 13, Issue 5, doi: 10.1007/s11783-019-1156-x

Abstract: Air Pollution Control model is developed for open-pit metal mines. Model will aid decision makers to select a cost-effective solution. Open-pit metal mines contribute toward air pollution and without effective control techniques manifests the risk of violation of environmental guidelines. This paper establishes a stochastic approach to conceptualize the air pollution control model to attain a sustainable solution. The model is formulated for decision makers to select the least costly treatment method using linear programming with a defined objective function and multi-constraints. Furthermore, an integrated fuzzy based risk assessment approach is applied to examine uncertainties and evaluate an ambient air quality systematically. The applicability of the optimized model is explored through an open-pit metal mine case study, in North America. This method also incorporates the meteorological data as input to accommodate the local conditions. The uncertainties in the inputs, and predicted concentration are accomplished by probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation method. The output results are obtained to select the cost-effective pollution control technologies for PM2.5, PM10, NOx, SO2 and greenhouse gases. The risk level is divided into three types (loose, medium and strict) using a triangular fuzzy membership approach based on different environmental guidelines. Fuzzy logic is then used to identify environmental risk through stochastic simulated cumulative distribution functions of pollutant concentration. Thus, an integrated modeling approach can be used as a decision tool for decision makers to select the cost-effective technology to control air pollution.

Keywords： Air pollution     Decision analysis     Linear programming     Mining     Optimization     Fuzzy     Monte Carlo    

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Geological risk prediction under uncertainty in tunnel excavation using online learning and hidden Markov

Frontiers of Engineering Management doi: 10.1007/s42524-024-0082-1

Abstract: The accurate estimation of geological risks is essential for preventing geohazards, and ensuring efficient and safe construction processes. This study proposes a method, the online hidden Markov model (OHMM), which combines online learning with the hidden Markov model to estimate geological risks. The OHMM is tailored for the continuous nature of observational data, allowing it to adaptively update with each new piece of data. To address the challenge of limited data in the early stages of construction, we use pre-construction borehole samples as additional data. This approach extends the short sequence of observed data to match the length of a complete sequence through an observation extension mechanism. The effectiveness of the OHMM, equipped with this observation extension mechanism, is demonstrated in a case study that models geological risks for a tunnel excavation project in Singapore. The OHMM outperforms traditional methods, including the hidden Markov model, long short-term memory network, neural network, and support vector machine, in predicting geological risks ahead of the tunnel boring machine. Notably, the OHMM can accurately forecast geological risks in areas yet to be constructed, using limited observational and site investigation data. This research advances geological risk prediction models by offering an online updating capability for tunnel excavation and construction projects. It enables early-stage risk prediction and provides long-term forecasts with minimal historical data requirements, maximizing the use of site investigation data.

Keywords： geological risk prediction     machine learning     online learning     hidden Markov model     borehole logging    

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Inverse uncertainty characteristics of pollution source identification for river chemical spill incidents

Jiping Jiang, Feng Han, Yi Zheng, Nannan Wang, Yixing Yuan

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2018, Volume 12, Issue 5, doi: 10.1007/s11783-018-1081-4

Abstract:

Uncertainty rules of pollution source inversion are revealed by stochastic>

A release load is most easily inversed and source locations own largest uncertainty/p>

Instantaneous spill assumption has much less uncertainty

Keywords： River chemical spills     Emergency response     Pollution source inversion     Inverse uncertainty analysis     Regional    

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Application of Uncertainty Reasoning Theory to Satellite Fault Detection and Diagnosis

Yang Tianshe,Li Huaizu,Cao Yuping

Strategic Study of CAE 2003, Volume 5, Issue 2,   Pages 68-74

Abstract:

Generally, reasoning theory can be divided into certainty reasoning theory and uncertainty reasoningFortunately, uncertainty reasoning theory can meet this requirement.attracting attention of many researchers and practitioners in the space field all over the world that uncertaintyUncertainty reasoning theory includes several kinds of theories, such as inclusion degree theory, roughsatellite faults, in which inclusion degree theory, rough set theory and evidence reasoning theory of the uncertainty

Keywords： satellite     fault     detection     diagnosis     uncertainty reasoning theory    

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Uncertainty assessment in hydro-mechanical-coupled analysis of saturated porous medium applying fuzzy

Farhoud KALATEH, Farideh HOSSEINEJAD

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2020, Volume 14, Issue 2,   Pages 387-410 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0601-z

Abstract: The purpose of the present study was to develop a fuzzy finite element method, for uncertainty quantificationparameters in five membership grades, followed up by a minute examination of the effects of input parameters uncertaintyof calculated displacements and pore pressure were dependent upon the number of fuzzy parameters and uncertainty

Keywords： fuzzy finite element method     saturated soil     hydro-mechanical coupled equations     coupled analysis     uncertainty    

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Title Author Date Type Operation

A surrogate model for uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear large-scale

Journal Article

Modeling the impact of uncertainty in emissions trading markets with bankable permits

Yongliang ZHANG, Bing ZHANG, Jun BI, Pan HE

Journal Article

Comprehensive Discussion on the Extension of Generalized Uncertainty Systems Theory

Wang Qingyin,Lii Ruihua

Journal Article

Key uncertainty events impacting on the completion time of highway construction projects

Alireza MOGHAYEDI, Abimbola WINDAPO

Journal Article

Uncertainty of concrete strength in shear and flexural behavior of beams using lattice modeling

Journal Article

Evaluation of measurement uncertainty of the high-speed variable-slit system based on the Monte Carlo

Yin ZHANG, Jianwei WU, Kunpeng XING, Zhongpu WEN, Jiubin TAN

Journal Article

Probabilistic seismic response and uncertainty analysis of continuous bridges under near-fault ground

Hai-Bin MA, Wei-Dong ZHUO, Davide LAVORATO, Camillo NUTI, Gabriele FIORENTINO, Giuseppe Carlo MARANO, Rita GRECO, Bruno BRISEGHELLA

Journal Article

Uncertainty in Knowledge Representation

Li Deyi

Journal Article

temperature in automotive engines over coldstart operation in the presence of different random noises and uncertainty

Nasser L. AZAD,Ahmad MOZAFFARI

Journal Article

The Argument Foundation of Generalized Uncertainty Systems Theory

Wang Qingyin,Guo Litian,Xie Jianhua,Liu Zhiyong

Journal Article

An integrated optimization and simulation approach for air pollution control under uncertainty in open-pit

Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

Journal Article

Geological risk prediction under uncertainty in tunnel excavation using online learning and hidden Markov

Journal Article

Inverse uncertainty characteristics of pollution source identification for river chemical spill incidents

Jiping Jiang, Feng Han, Yi Zheng, Nannan Wang, Yixing Yuan

Journal Article

Application of Uncertainty Reasoning Theory to Satellite Fault Detection and Diagnosis

Yang Tianshe,Li Huaizu,Cao Yuping

Journal Article

Uncertainty assessment in hydro-mechanical-coupled analysis of saturated porous medium applying fuzzy

Farhoud KALATEH, Farideh HOSSEINEJAD

Journal Article